Collette Calls: Sprinting in Spring

I have authored a few pieces over the past couple years on steals, particularly how March can give us a heads up on how the league may act during the regular season for the running game. I want to revisit that topic this week because after looking at some of the data through games played on March 5th...

I mentioned in the piece two weeks ago that we have seen a strong correlation between how frequently the league runs in March and how frequently the league runs during the regular season. That correlation drops from 0.82 to 0.5 when looking at a per-team basis and absolutely falls apart at the individual player level. Bryce Johnson stole 12 bags in spring training back in 2023 and had just three during the regular season. He is one of many such stories, but this spring, the league is on the move thus far well above the levels previously seen since the rules changed in 2023. 

I look at attempts as a formula of ((SB+CS)/(Total Games/2)) for the league looking to see how many successful or failed attempts are happening per contest. The table below shows the rate for the seasons since 2021:

2023 saw the same factors we currently see this spring, with the new rules in place as well as the World Baseball Classic affecting Cactus and Grapefruit League numbers. The talented players leaving to represent their countries open up playing time for players who would have likely been sent to minor-league camp more quickly if not for the need to fill roster spots. Zac Veen had quite the run that spring despite his inexperience, as he hit .280 and went 8-of-9 with steals. Tim Lopes hit .360 and was a perfect 6-for-6 in steals for the Padres. This spring, we've witnessed an increased aggressiveness on the basepaths, as teams are attempting 2.58 steals per contest, which represents nearly a 12 percent increase over last spring's rate.

 There are four teams who have increased their attempt rates by at least 100% over last season:

The White Sox have had 19 different players attempt at least one steal this spring and are currently being led by backup catcher Korey Lee and Dusty Baker's son, Darren, who each have three steals thus far in camp. Miami has had 22 different players attempt a steal, led by Esteury Ruiz, who is a perfect 4-for-4 in his attempts, with Xavier Edwards and Heriberto Hernandez behind him with three steals each. The Astros have put 20 different players in motion, led by Zach Cole, Brice Matthews and Walker Janek each swiping four bases. 

The Red Sox is where things get interesting. I was listening to the Rates and Barrels podcast last week as Derek Van Riper and Red Sox beat writer Jen McCaffrey discussed the team, and McCaffrey communicated that Boston wanted to emphasize steals this spring. Boston attempted 31 steals in last year's Grapefruit League play but has already exceeded that figure this spring, with one particular player doing the heavy lifting while Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran are away in the World Baseball Classic. Braiden Ward is doing his own Bryce Johnson impression, as Ward is 12-of-13 in camp while trying to make this roster as a non-roster invite. Ward was acquired over the winter for Brennan Bernardino and was not considered anything more than organizational depth. Ward did hit .290 with a .395 on-base percentage and stole 57 bases in 64 attempts between Double-A and Triple-A while playing mostly in the outfield as well as a few games at second base and third base. On paper, Ward seems to be the next version of David Hamilton, a player the team recently dealt away, as there are similar skills throughout the profile. The problem for Ward is the presence of Matasaka Yoshida on the roster. If Boston could just admit they messed up and send Yoshida to a team who needs a DH upgrade like Atlanta, Ward's 2026 gets interesting for AL-only formats

On the flip side, there are two notable teams who have declined in steals this spring, one more than the other:

The Reds have their regular speedsters in camp, but Terry Francona appears to have lost his lead foot in his golden years. He wasn't terribly aggressive in the 2025 regular season, and thus far, he hasn't shown much interest in running, with just six players even attempting a stolen base, none of whom are Elly De La Cruz. Meanwhile, Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr. are away at the WBC, so the Royals' decline in running shouldn't raise any alarms, but it will be interesting to see how the team adjusts once they see how the new home park configuration plays out in games.

It might be useful to see how the teams under new skippers are running this spring as well, to see if there's anything to glean from those early tendencies:

I will re-run all these numbers as camps wrap up in two weeks to see where the final numbers stand, but I found this early data to be rather interesting and potentially actionable in drafts for all of us in the coming weeks. If you would like to see the data for each team, refer to the table below. I'm off to New York City this weekend for Tout Wars and look forward to sharing my recap of that draft with you next week.