Top MLB Betting Picks: September 11th Best Bets & Predictions
I know we have football everywhere right now but it still feels like summer out. Here's a few MLB props to considers from today's abbreviated slate
Season record 29-31-1, -4.2 units
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Nationals at Marlins
Its a weirdly parallel pitching situation for both teams today. They each will start sporadically excellent lefties in their returns from the IL. The Nats roll out MacKenzie Gore, who hit the shelf after pitching 5 innings and allowing 3 runs at the Yankees on August 26th. The Marlins counter with Ryan Weathers, last seen on an MLB mound back on June 7th. Gore was out basically the minimum 15 days so he never did a minor league rehab. Weathers made 2 minor league starts this go around, facing 14 batters over 2.2 IP in his 1st start and 18 in 4.2 IP in his second.
I just do not see either team leaving their starter in very long today. Neither team is playing for anything at this point in the 2025 season. And these are two valuable arms running out of team control. Gore has two more seasons until free agency while Weathers has three. Its unclear how serious each team is about competing in 2026. But whether trade bait or a key pace next season, I expect a quick hook for both. There's no upside to an extended outing for either arm. Plus neither team is a pushover at the moment. The Nats have a 117 wRC+ in September while the Marlins scored 8 last night and have generally been a surprisingly pesky group all season. I'm going with the Under on the Outs Recorded prop on both starters today.
MLB Best Bet
- MacKenzie Gore Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-121 DraftKings
- Ryan Weathers Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-134 DraftKings)
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Mets at Phillies
Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo has had a pretty good but wildly inconsistent season. His 4.01 ERA and 1.29 do not set any hearts aflutter, and for his Fantasy owners like yours truly, there have been some scary bumps along the way. A 2-start run of 20 Earned runs in 5.2 IP back in late May and early June comes to mind. But through it all, he continues to generate the K's. He has a 30.1% Whiff%, good for 83rd percentile as per Statcast, and a 28% K% that's 84th percentile. All told he's struck out 190 in his 29 starts, which comes out to 6.55K's/G.
But getting to 7 K's in a start is pretty much what he does, especially lately. In last 11 starts back to July 9th he's whiffed at least 7 in eight of those gamess. He's actually K'd exactly 7 in six of those starts. The Mets don't pose an especially tough threat in this department, particularly lately and against lefties. They have a 22.9% K% vs. southpaws back to the All-Star break, 10th worst in MLB. And in their last four games they have the following K totals vs. starters; 12 (Hunter Greene), 7 (Aaron Nola), 12 (Ranger Suarez) and 6 (Cristopher Sanchez. I like the odds of Luzardo getting to 7 today like he always does.
MLB Best Bet
- Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 K's (-111 DraftKings)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- MacKenzie Gore Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-121 DraftKings)
- Ryan Weathers Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-134 DraftKings)
- Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 K's (-111 DraftKings)
