Top MLB Betting Picks for July 18: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 2-1 ( +0.80 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 88-91-1 (-6.31 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Friday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Watch the heat, as always, in outdoor parks for totals.
Home Favorites - Phillies -200 vs Angels, Dodgers -180 vs Brewers, Mets -165 vs Reds
Road Favorites - Twins -160 at Rockies, Padres -155 at Nationals
Totals - Twins/Rockies 10.5, Mariners/Astros 7.5, Royals/Marlins 7.5
Bullpen Rankings (updated 7/1/25; xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Braves, Orioles, Padres, Astros, Brewers, Rays, Rangers, Pirates, Cardinals, Twins). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Nationals, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays, Rockies, Mariners, Angels, Tigers, Guardians, White Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs Betting Insights
Lucas Giolito has made significant adjustments in his fastball usage and the results have been astounding. Since June 10th, Giolito has had 6 starts for 38.2 innings, but a 0.70 ERA, 0.88 WHIP.
He has been one of the better pitchers in baseball in that time and the Red Sox lineup has also been on fire, scoring an average of seven runs per game. Colin Rea has pitched well in his last 3 starts, but his overall numbers are not good. He has allowed 1.9 HR/9 at home which does not bode well for him against this Red Sox lineup.
Giolito is on a run right now and you have to ride him until we see something change.
The Red Sox are on an incredible heater and I will continue to roll with them as road dogs.
MLB Best Bets: Red Sox ML for 1 unit (Caesars +115)
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San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bets and Predictions
Justin Verlander has not been good this season with an 0-7 record, 4.70 ERA, and 1.42 WHIP. This is on top of his 2024 season with the Astros in which he had a 5.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He has only had 4 decent starts in 15 tries. When he does not have the friendly confines of his home ballpark, he is even worse. Chris Bassitt has been solid enough to where he should be working with a decent lead.
The moneyline feels a bit low here and I think the name value of the Giants and Verlander is what is keeping it down, but the Blue Jays are playing some great baseball right now.
MLB Best Bets: Blue Jays ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -135)
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Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins Best Bets and Predictions
The Royals have been dismal on offense at home all season, so getting a break on the road is actually a positive. Sandy Alcantara is just not recovered from Tommy John surgery yet and probably gets dealt at the trade deadline.
Seth Lugo is also a potential trade deadline candidate and I am going to side with him and the Royals on the moneyline here.
MLB Best Bets: Royals ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -115)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (Caesars +115)
- Blue Jays ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -135)
- Royals ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -115)
