2026 NCAA Tournament Top 16 Seeds: Bracketology Preview and Selection Committee Criteria
The NCAA selection committee will release its first Top 16 seeds of the season later this month, offering an official snapshot of how the top of the bracket is taking shape at the midpoint of conference play. While the reveal doesn't lock in seed lines or guarantee anything on Selection Sunday, it does provide insight into how the committee is weighing resumes right now.
As with any bracketology exercise, the focus goes well beyond overall record. Quality wins, road performance, strength of schedule and the absence of damaging losses all factor into how teams are evaluated, especially near the top of the bracket. Using those same criteria, this article outlines what to expect from the Top 16 reveal and how it aligns with the current projections in my 2026 NCAA Tournament bracketology.
For a live, updated look at where these teams currently sit, check out our full 2026 NCAA Tournament bracketology on RotoWire.
What the NCAA's Top 16 Reveal Represents
The Top 16 reveal offers an early snapshot of how the selection committee is evaluating teams at the top of the bracket. While it doesn't lock in seed lines or guarantee outcomes on Selection Sunday, it does provide useful context for which resumes the committee currently values most.
Because the committee changes each season, the reveal also reflects how this group is applying long-standing evaluation criteria like quality wins, strength of schedule, road performance and the avoidance of damaging losses in real time. It's not meant to be predictive, but it often highlights which teams have separated themselves and which still have work to do.
With roughly a month left in the regular season, plenty will change between now and March. Still, the Top 16 serves as a reference point for understanding how the committee views the nation's elite teams as conference play reaches its most important stretch.
How the Selection Committee Evaluates Top 16 Seeds
Similar to the criteria for No. 1 seeds, the committee has to break down each team using a number of key factors.
- Overall Record & Strength of Schedule
- Quality Wins (Quad 1 & Quad 2)
- Road & Neutral Court Performances
- Bad Losses & Resume Holes
- NET Rankings
Metrics prior to games on Friday, Feb. 6
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Teams Tracking as Top 16 Seeds
Projected 1 Seeds
Arizona: NET 1, 22-0 Overall
Undefeated with elite wins, Arizona has its eyes set on the overall No. 1 seed.
Michigan: NET 2, 21-1 Overall
While Michigan still plays at Purdue and Illinois, there's a chance its neutral-site game against Duke decides who is higher on the seed list. Either way, given that schedule, the Wolverines are more likely to drop a seed than the Blue Devils.
Duke: NET 3, 21-1 Overall
There's a chance Duke isn't challenged again outside of the Michigan game. Ahead of Saturday's game at North Carolina, the Blue Devils have won six straight by double digits. If UNC can't give Duke trouble at home, then it's unlikely anyone else in the ACC will.
Connecticut: NET 6, 22-1 Overall
Similar to Duke, UConn has a pretty clear path to a 1-seed. While the Huskies have had some scares in Big East play, their only loss is against Arizona which came without two of their regular players due to injury. Friday's game at St. John's will likely be their most difficult game until March Madness.
Projected 2 Seeds
Houston: NET 7, 20-2 Overall
Houston probably has the best shot at getting a 1-seed if it can get multiple wins out of upcoming games against BYU, Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas. It's hard to see them going 4-0 or even 3-1 in those games, making a 1-seed hard to fathom.
Illinois: NET 4, 20-3 Overall
The Fighting Illini are slowly creeping up the charts with 12 straight wins. The rest of their schedule is workable especially since they host Michigan in a few weeks. Keaton Wagler is one of the crazier stories of the season in terms of his rise, and he's leading them to a likely 2-seed.
Iowa State: NET 5, 20-2 Overall
Most Big 12 teams have a tough road ahead and that's the case for Iowa State. Already with a loss to Cincinnati, the Cyclones seem headed for a 2- or 3-seed with home games against Kansas and Houston, as well as road games at BYU and Arizona still on the schedule.
Nebraska: NET 10, 20-2 Overall
The Cornhuskers will likely be a talking point if they keep winning. Not many can get past them being an elite basketball team, which has led to some skepticism from a national perspective. However, they already have six Quad 1 wins and have great chances for a few more. They have a chance to sweep Iowa and then host Purdue next week, all three of which could be massive opportunities to give them a good shot at a 2-seed.
Projected 3 Seeds
Gonzaga: NET 9, 22-2 Overall
The only realistic way for Gonzaga to have a chance for a 2-seed is to sweep the rest of its schedule. I wrote that before Wednesday's loss to Portland, which automatically removes them from the 1-seed conversation. While the Bulldogs tried to challenge themselves in non-conference play, most of the teams they played are underperforming. Given the lack of high quality wins combined with a Quad 3 loss, they're the first team on my 3-seed line.
Purdue: NET 8, 18-4 Overall
Losing two home games to elite teams isn't the worst thing, but when you also lose at UCLA and Indiana, that compounds things. The Boilermakers were viewed as one of the best teams in the country before the season, but unless they string together some big wins, it's unlikely they crack the 2-seed line. Starting next week, they have a trio of games that includes trips to Nebraska and Iowa, and then home against Michigan.
Michigan State: NET 13, 19-4 Overall
Michigan State is in a similar situation to Purdue. The Spartans added a loss to Minnesota on Wednesday, which surprisingly rates as a Q1 right now. However, they still don't have any truly elite wins. With road games at both Purdue and Michigan late in the season, the Spartans will either scratch for a 2-seed or fall to the 4-seed line.
Vanderbilt: NET 14, 19-3 Overall
Vanderbilt is my last 3-seed as of Feb. 5. However, with five of its last nine games on the road combined with home games against Texas A&M and Tennessee, I'd be surprised if the Commodores stay here. Similar to Michigan State, they don't have elite wins that jump off the page.
Projected 4 Seeds
Kansas: NET 12, 17-5 Overall
The Jayhawks have kind of come out of nowhere to be relevant again. Fresh off a loss to West Virginia, they were 11-5 with Darryn Peterson problems. Since, they blasted Iowa State and BYU at home with the recent road win at Texas Tech maybe being more impressive. With more losses likely, they'll probably stay in the 4-seed range with possibility of a 3-seed if they can add a road win at Arizona or Iowa State.
Florida: NET 11, 16-6 Overall
The Gators could probably move more than anyone else in the Top 16. Despite having favorable metrics, they already have six losses, one of them being on a neutral to TCU. They could either win out or lose three more games in the SEC, and either result wouldn't be surprising.
Virginia: NET 16, 19-3 Overall
This is where the teams start dropping off with little separating them. The Cavaliers are having a great rebound season under Ryan Odom, but there's not a ton on the resume, and the neutral loss to Butler is the worst of any team on this list outside of Gonzaga. Still, they have just three losses and only have three true road games left, which means more wins are ahead.
Texas Tech: NET 21, 16-6 Overall
Two weeks ago, this was probably BYU's spot. But given recent losses and the lack of big wins against mediocre competition, it seems like more losses are headed its way. Despite having more losses, Texas Tech has better wins and has a chance to sweep this series in the regular season finale. The Red Raiders have disappointed since beating Houston, but their schedule points to not many more losses the rest of the way.
Teams on the Top 16 Fringe
While it looks like the top 12 or 14 teams are fairly certain, anything can happen the rest of the way, and that's most likely to happen with the final teams on the 4-seed line.
BYU and Tennessee are next closest. BYU doesn't have elite wins, while Tennessee has been erratic throughout the season.
St. John's could make a push with a win against UConn, while Alabama and North Carolina don't seem like teams that could string together wins and become a top-16 team. Any team could make a late run to put its name in the ring, but as of February, the top 20 or so teams in the country are evident.
A team like Kentucky, that has the talent but has disappointed, is most likely to crack into the upper echelon.
Saint Louis is another interesting talking point if the wins continue. Sitting at 22-1, the Billikens could run the table and enter 4-seed territory. However, their lone loss came on a neutral to Stanford and their best win is either against Santa Clara or VCU. To get a 4-seed, they'll need to continue blowing out competition.
The Top 16 reveal provides a useful reference point, but the margins between teams at the top of the bracket remain thin. With conference play still unfolding, small resume changes can quickly reshape the seed lines.
For a live, updated look at how these teams are currently projected, along with full seed-by-seed breakdowns, check out RotoWire's complete 2026 NCAA Tournament bracketology.
Check out the RotoWire CBB betting section for a complete list of the latest college basketball odds across multiple sportsbooks.
