The 12-team College Football Playoff is quickly becoming a college football betting staple for futures wagering, in its second season under this format.
Which teams will back up their recruiting rankings and preseason hype? And will anybody make a Cinderella run the way Indiana and Arizona State did last year in the inaugural 12-team Playoff? Here we go with our updated projection of the CFP field for the 2025 season after Week 1.
Projected College Football Playoff Field For 2025
Seed, Team | Conference | 2025 (Overall, Conference) |
1. Ohio State | Big Ten | 1-0 (0-0) |
2. Georgia | SEC | 1-0 (0-0) |
3. Texas | SEC | 0-1 (0-0) |
4. Penn State | Big Ten | 1-0 (0-0) |
5. LSU | SEC | 1-0 (0-0) |
6. Miami | ACC | 1-0 (0-0) |
7. Clemson | ACC | 0-1 (0-0) |
8. Oregon | Big Ten | 1-0 (0-0) |
9. Notre Dame | Independent | 0-1 |
10. Arizona State | Big 12 | 1-0 (0-0) |
11. South Carolina | SEC | 1-0 (0-0) |
12. Tulane | American | 1-0 (0-0) |
Of note for customers at sports betting sites contemplating wagers on college football: The seeding format has changed from last year's inaugural run at a 12-team field.
For the 2025 College Football Playoff, the teams will be seeded in order of their final CFP ranking, with no first-round byes guaranteed for conference champions. The five highest-ranked conference champions – including one from the Group of Five leagues – will be guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Last year, the top four seeds (and first-round byes) were awarded to the four highest-ranked conference champions, which led to ninth-ranked Boise State receiving the No. 3 seed and Big 12 champion Arizona State, which was 12th in the final CFP rankings, getting the No. 4 seed.
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Top CFP 2025 Contenders
The defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes made the first big splash on the first full weekend of college football, taking down the top-ranked Texas Longhorns, 14-7, in the noon window. The game in Columbus saw OSU hold preseason Heisman Trophy favorite Arch Manning to 170 yards on 17-of-30 passing, one touchdown and one interception in his first road start.
We think the Longhorns will be fine in the long run. The defense is stacked – Texas held the Buckeyes to 203 total yards – and Manning should blossom as the season wears on.
Julian Sayin was 13 of 20 for 126 in his debut as the starting QB for Ryan Day's team, which has two much easier non-conference tests ahead (Grambling on Saturday and the Ohio Bobcats on Sept. 13) before embarking on Big Ten play.
Legal, regulated U.S. sportsbook apps have OSU as the clear CFP championship favorite, with odds from +500 to +600 depending on the operator.
CFP Projections Shaken Up Already
Alabama's stunning loss to Florida State on Saturday was enough to knock the Crimson Tide out of our CFP projections, making room for another SEC team, South Carolina.
We're not quite ready to anoint FSU as a contender, considering the Seminoles' 2-10 season in 2024. But the ACC race looks spicy already. Preseason league CFB futures favorite Clemson lost at home to LSU in Week 1 while Miami defended its home turf with a 27-24 victory over Notre Dame.
And the CFP berth guaranteed to the Group of Five has already changed hands. We initially projected Boise State to be the G5 representative for the second year running. But the Broncos are clearly not the same without running back Ashton Jeanty, losing their opener 34-7 at South Florida. So we're shifting to Tulane, the college football odds favorite to win the American Conference, as the CFP participant outside of the Power 4.
Outsiders Who Could Crash The CFP
We don't have Illinois in our projections yet, and we didn't learn much from an opening 52-3 win over FCS program Western Illinois. But junior RB Aidan Laughery had 101 yards and two TDs on just nine carries against the Leathernecks.
The Fighting Illini have +650 odds to make the CFP with bet365 Sportsbook. That's an enticing price considering how likely it is that the Big Ten will get at least three and perhaps four CFP bids. Ohio State didn't even make the league title game last year but parlayed a CFP at-large bid into a national championship. We're not saying Illinois is poised for a similar leap, just that finishing third or even fourth in the league might be good enough to make the CFP field.
TCU, which went to the national title game in 2022, slid to a 5-7 finish the following year, then rebounded with a 9-4 campaign last season. The Horned Frogs opened with a dominant 48-14 win on Monday at North Carolina, spoiling the debut of Bill Belichick as UNC coach, and they could be a factor in what appears to be a wide-open Big 12 race. See our Big 12 odds page to compare lines with various operators and get the best price on the team you like.
