On the Tuesday RotoWire MLB Podcast last week, Fred Zinkie tasked us with building a roster comprised entirely of players drafted outside the top 300 in NFBC ADP. We used the NFBC's results from the last three weeks in the RotoWire Online Championshp as our ranking source.
This article will discuss who we settled on, in additon to some other options we like. Ideally this exercise will help you find targets in the endgame of your drafts, as well as identify where you are better off targeting players earlier on.
The 300 Club
Our roster consists of 23 players -- 14 catchers and nine pitchers -- and for this exercise we did not draft reserves. I understand more modern formats use different rules, including just one catcher, specifying the number of starting pitchers, relievers and more, but 're going to stick with the traditional rotisserie roster format.
Catcher (2)
When we recorded the podcast, 14 Online Championships had been completed since January 20. In those 14 drafts, 23 of the 24 starting catcher spots were drafted in all leagues. The last of those 23, at an average pick of 293, is Ryan Jeffers. Only eight other catchers were drafted at all in those 14 leagues. We were obviously not restricted by just those catchers, but it's a good starting point. Those eight were: Carson Kelly, Edgar Quero, Bo Naylor, Sean Murphy, Carlos Narvaez, Freddy Fermin, Victor Caratini and Miguel Amaya.
When fishing
On the Tuesday RotoWire MLB Podcast last week, Fred Zinkie tasked us with building a roster comprised entirely of players drafted outside the top 300 in NFBC ADP. We used the NFBC's results from the last three weeks in the RotoWire Online Championshp as our ranking source.
This article will discuss who we settled on, in additon to some other options we like. Ideally this exercise will help you find targets in the endgame of your drafts, as well as identify where you are better off targeting players earlier on.
The 300 Club
Our roster consists of 23 players -- 14 catchers and nine pitchers -- and for this exercise we did not draft reserves. I understand more modern formats use different rules, including just one catcher, specifying the number of starting pitchers, relievers and more, but 're going to stick with the traditional rotisserie roster format.
Catcher (2)
When we recorded the podcast, 14 Online Championships had been completed since January 20. In those 14 drafts, 23 of the 24 starting catcher spots were drafted in all leagues. The last of those 23, at an average pick of 293, is Ryan Jeffers. Only eight other catchers were drafted at all in those 14 leagues. We were obviously not restricted by just those catchers, but it's a good starting point. Those eight were: Carson Kelly, Edgar Quero, Bo Naylor, Sean Murphy, Carlos Narvaez, Freddy Fermin, Victor Caratini and Miguel Amaya.
When fishing in the endgame waters, one doesn't necessarily take the highest ranked player on a cheatsheet and call it a day. Often we're trying to find a fit in a category where we're short, or with a second catcher, just find a guy that can contribute in one category without killing our batting average. Even though someone like Bo Naylor or Patrick Bailey might rate higher by rankings or projections, they might not be a good fit.
Two players who might otherwise be good targets don't yet qualify yet at the catcher spot due to games played last season are Ivan Herrera and Moises Ballesteros.
Our choices were Amaya (Jeff) and Caratini (Fred). Amaya showed some promise before an oblique injury and then an ankle injury limited him to only 28 games. I expect him to challenge Carson Kelly for playing time this season. Fred liked Caratini's ability to play first base and DH when he isn't catching for the Twins.
1B/3B/CR (3)
There were only eight first base-eligible players drafted in this range: Andrew Vaughn, Miguel Vargas, Lenyn Sosa, Josh Smith, Nolan Schanuel, Romy Gonzalez, Josh Bell and Triston Casas.
Is Vaughn (ADP: 306.79) being underdrafted? He hit .308/.375/.493 in 64 games after being traded to the Brewers. With the White Sox he posted a 3.6 BB% and 22.3 K%, while with the Brewers those respective numbers were 9.4% and 14.6%. Both Fred and I were buying what Vaughn was selling and quickly made him one of our picks.
Last year, Fred was interested in adding Nolan Schanuel late in drafts. Our interest in Schanuel has been quelled though, despite his superior contact skills -- a 10.5 BB%, 12.6 K% and 85.5 contact rate. Unfortunately for Schanuel, despite efforts to improve his bat speed and launch angle, he still managed just a .125 ISO and .389 slugging percentage.
Our pool of third-base-eligible players that were drafted in this range was quite a bit higher, with 16 players qualifying and some overlap from the first base pool. Those players were Ernie Clement, Mark Vientos, Miguel Vargas, Colt Keith, Connor Norby, Josh Jung, Brooks Lee, Jordan Lawlar, Zach McKinstry, Josh Smith, Marcelo Mayer, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Jonathan India, Ryan McMahon and Yoan Moncada.
While the options were plentiful, they weren't necessarily exciting, and it served as a reminder to not wait on third base in drafts that count. So many of these players have playing time insecurity, with Vientos, Keith, Norby, McKinstry, Mayer and Gorman fit under that broad penumbra. That's one of the reasons why Nolan Arenado rates higher by projection -- playing time will not be an issue if he stays healthy. If I were looking to fill just a third-base slot late, I might land on him for that reason and hope that the change of scenery allows him to reclaim his ever-dissipating power. At least he has a decent track record at Chase Field, hitting .280/.334/.507 in 300 career at-bats there.
Because I was so insistent on taking Vaughn, I deferred to Fred for this pick. Fred went with Jung, who struggled mightily the last two years. Elbow, thumb and wrist injuries played a big role in that. If you're looking for a reason to hope, Jung had excellent hard-hit and sweet-spot rates, but he needs to elevate some of those hard-hit balls to realize his power upside.
We went with another third-base eligible player to fill our corner spot in Lawlar, who has been a minister without portfolio to begin his big-league career. He has flopped whenever he's been given a fleeting chance. His minor-league stats suggest he won't always have trouble seeing pitches at the top level, and the Diamondbacks finally seem committed to playing Lawlar regularly, albeit in the outfield.
2B/SS/MI (3)
Unlike first base, where there are copious options in the top 100, top 200 and top 300 but few available for our exercise, we're littered with second basemen in this range -- 14 to be exact. Those include Ernie Clement, Brendan Donovan (2B-only for now), Lenyn Sosa, Luisangel Acuna, Tommy Edman, Colt Keith, Andres Gimenez, Brooks Lee, Romy Gonzalez, Jeff McNeil, Chase Meidroth, Nolan Gorman, Jonathan India and David Hamilton.
Keep in mind the timing of our exercise, as Donovan is already moving up the charts and was an obvious choice. He's likely going to hit leadoff for the Mariners and will probably re-add third base eligibility. As we discussed earlier, a reliable option at third base can be pretty hard to find, so that added eligibility is really nice. I am a little worried about the effects of T-Mobile Park on Donovan's batting average, which is one of his stronger points. I was also intrigued some by Jeff McNeil, who moves to a better home-run park in Sacramento -- especially for lefty power.
We had 11 more options qualifying at shortstop, though it was really only 10 because some of our sample pre-dated Sebastian Walcott's season-ending surgery. The other 10 shortstop-eligible players in our pool included Ernie Clement, Kevin McGonigle, Brooks Lee, Zach McKinstry, Josh Smith, Chase Meidroth, Aidan Miller, Anthony Volpe, Ha-Seong Kim and Colt Emerson. After Donovan was traded, Emerson was also struck from our list.
Clement is a sneaky value this year. Not only does he qualify at three positions (2B/3B/SS), he should play nearly every day with Bo Bichette no longer around. Your later picks in deeper leagues -- especially in draft-and-hold leagues or leagues with no IL spots -- should carry a mix of playing time and upside. Clement isn't going to provide much of the latter in terms of power and speed, but his sky-high contact rate (88.8% last season) will help you in batting average and runs scored. We placed Clement in one of our middle infield slots as a result.
To fill the other middle infield spot we resolved to gamble on one of the elite prospects in this range. Both Konnor Griffin and JJ Wetherholt were unavailable in this exercise, so we landed on Detroit's McGonigle. I love McGonigle's eye at the plate, especially when accounting for how young he has been at each level. There's a good chance he will hit for average when he makes his debut, and there's a modicum of power and speed to match.
OF/UT
As befitting such a deep position, and one that requires us to roster at least five players, our pool of options here is also wider. We have 29 players that are outfield-eligible, plus I grouped the three UT-only players that are being selected in this range -- Marcell Ozuna, Ballesteros and Bryce Eldridge. To give the position a little bit more clarity, we split the outfielders into two groups -- those between 300-329, and those drafted after pick 330.
- 300-329: Jung Hoo Lee, Chase DeLauter, Cedric Mullins, Harrison Bader, Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II and Victor Robles.
- 330+: Tommy Edman, Dylan Beavers, Cam Smith, Owen Caissie, Matt Wallner, Zach McKinstry, Carson Benge, Isaac Collins, Jake Mangum, Jorge Soler, Jesus Sanchez, Jeff McNeil, Jake McCarthy, Austin Hays, Gavin Sheets, Jonathan India, Dominic Canzone, Nick Castellanos, Lane Thomas, Brandon Marsh, Max Clark, and Wenceel Perez.
I decided to add one more restriction to better simulate this being a drafting exercise. We were required to take at least two outfielders from each grouping, while leaving the fifth outfielder spot and the UT slot available to any group.
This hypothetical team was light on speed, so Fred and I addressed the first two outfield spots with stolen base practitioners in Scott and Mullins. Scott -- with a 35.2 SBO last season -- already has a green light from manager Oliver Marmol, and with more projected playing time in what appears to be a down year for the Cardinals, he could be a sneaky source for extra bags. Mullins similarly should have a green light with the Rays.
Drafting both Scott and Mullins comes with the drawback of less power, so with our next two picks we added some balance and went with Wallner and Canzone. Both offer considerable power, with the considerable risk of hurting our batting average, but hey, when you're shopping in the bargain aisle there's a reason for the discount.
We closed out our last outfield spot with DeLauter. He's similar to our pick of McGonigle at MI, where we went for a shot at upside with a young player on the rise. DeLauter only hit the majors in time for the playoffs, and he has missed a good chunk of time due to injury since joining the Guardians organization. He's likely walking into the starting center field job and could hit toward the top of the lineup.
Finally, Fred had the floor for the last pick and went with Ozuna to fill our UT slot. He joined the Pirates shortly before, and by switching parks from Truist Park in Atlanta to PNC Park in Pittsburgh he's going from a roughly average right-handed power park -- a 101 park factor for HR by RHH over the last three seasons -- to perhaps the worst park for right-handed power with a 68 park factor. Even accounting for that, we're getting a discount because of the late signing and the fact he doesn't and likely won't ever again qualify for the outfield.
Starting Pitchers (6-7)
As with the outfielders, the pool of available players is wider, so we again split our options into two halves, and there are plenty of enticing targets.
- 300-329: Ian Seymour, Parker Messick, Bailey Ober, Tyler Mahle, Andrew Painter, Chad Patrick, Jacob Lopez, Jonah Tong, Brady Singer, Reynaldo Lopez, Justin Steele, Reid Detmers and Will Warren.
- 330+: Seth Lugo, Cade Cavalli, David Peterson, Jameson Taillon, Jose Soriano, Brayan Bello, Clay Holmes, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Gil, Joe Boyle, Simeon Woods Richardson, Cristian Javier, Dustin May, Mitch Keller, Luis Morales, Spencer Arrighetti, Brandon Pfaadt, Zack Littell, Steven Matz, Johan Oviedo, Lucas Giolito, Jared Jones, Jeffrey Springs, Luis Severino, Braxton Garrett and Landen Roupp.
With so many interesting choices, we ended up selecting seven starters and two relievers. The reliever pool below didn't seem nearly as enticing, especially in regards to job security. In our hypothetical league, we would spend more time on reserves and the free agent market trying to buffer our bullpen.
Ironically, our first choice is a pitcher I've subsequently cooled on in Mahle. While he's going from one elite pitching park, Globe Life Field, to another one in San Francisco's Oracle Park, there are a number of concerns that have since scared me away. Let's start off with the most basic negative stat -- his 19.1 K%, which is well below average for starting pitchers. Add in that he had the second biggest difference between ERA (2.18) and xERA (4.24) among qualified starters and it's easy to see regression kicking in. He also missed the end of the season with shoulder problems and is joining an inferior defensive team. The price might still be right despite all of those negative indicators, but I feel far less comfortable about this pick than I did before.
A common theme of this pitcher pool is that there are plenty of highly-skilled starters, but often they come with injury risk. Such is the case with Lopez, who only made one start before missing the rest of 2025 with a shoulder injury. The good news is that Lopez has regained his velocity early this spring.
Cavalli might be the one Nationals starter I'll roster all season. After a multi-year arc where he struggled to return from arm injuries, he demonstrated some of the stuff that had us excited in him as a prospct. There's a new coaching and developmental staff working for the Nationals, and that can't be viewed as a negative. His velocity made it all the way back last year and he had whiff rates in the 70th+ percentile, but the strikeouts haven't quite matched those traits yet. I think they're coming soon.
Javier once held a K% exceeding 30 percent, but he didn't exceed 23.1% over the last three seasons. He missed big chunks of 2024 and 2025 after sustaining a UCL injury but successfully made it through eight starts at the end of last season. He will need to take two more steps forward to improve his K% to an acceptable level, but his past performance and Houston's track record with pitchers at least gives us hope of happy returns.
Soriano has teased us with his ability without putting it all together yet. He's a heavy groundball pitcher with the ability to generate swings-and-misses, and yet as a starter he's been unable to maintain anything close to the 30+ K% he had as a reliever. Poor control numbers have held him back, so we're ingesting a bit of "hope-ium" to rely on him taking a step forward.
When all else fails in the endgame, find the pitchers that can miss bats and hope they improve the other skills. That's the justification for me pushing Lopez onto this team. Sutter Health Home Field is a tough place to pitch, and generally I'm straying from pitchers on the Athletics, but how else are we going to find a pitcher with a 28.3 K% around pick No. 360? Lopez missed some time at the end of the year with elbow issue but appears to be on track so far this spring.
Fred and I cheated on the last starting pitcher spot, each nominating a candidate we would have taken. I went with Patrick, who took time away from being a 90s-era sitcom heartthrob to become the latest successful product of Milwaukee's pitching lab. The rotation is crowded for the Brewers for fantasy baseball purposess, especially if Brandon Woodruff (lat) is ready for Opening Day. But I think Patrick is at least the Brewers' fourth best starter, ahead of Quinn Priester, Robert Gasser and others, and our colleague James Anderson prefers Patrick straight up over Logan Henderson, let alone at cost. Fred went with Steele as a last pick stash, which I can get behind. Let's just assume we were able to draft Steele, put him on our imaginary IL and then add Patrick.
Relief Pitchers (2-3)
Once again, the volume of options here was plentiful, but as we quickly discovered, pitchers that had the combination of skills plus preferred role were sparse. That shouldn't be a surprise, given how fluid bullpens are for many teams. There's a strong chance at least five of these pitchers will pick up at least 10 saves, but there's also a very strong chance that our accuracy in identifying which ones will be very low. As with the outfielders and starters, we broke the reliever pool into two tiers.
- 300-329: Kirby Yates, Clayton Beeter, Will Vest, Robert Stephenson, Kyle Finnegan.
- 330+: Justin Sterner, Victor Vodnik, Jordan Leasure, JoJo Romero, Grant Taylor, Jeremiah Estrada, Tony Santillan, Tanner Scott, Cole Sands, Garrett Cleavinger, Alexis Diaz, Luke Weaver, Tyler Rogers, Hogan Harris, Andrew Kittredge, Phil Maton, Matt Svanson
Fred and I quickly agreed on Beeter of the Washington Nationals. After they traded Jose Ferrer to the Mariners this offseason and Kyle Finnegan to the Tigers at the trade deadline last year, Beeter is presumably the next man up. That presumption doesn't go very far, however, as he has one career save and was only converted to a full-time relief role last season. But I like his 96.5 mph average fastball and 31.7 K% in the majors last season.
The tougher decision was the second reliever slot. We considered a portion of Detroit's bullpen in Vest or Finnegan, either Yates, Stephenson or Ben Joyce for the Agnels but ultimately picked Svanson of the Cardinals. Svanson didn't even get any saves last season after the Ryan Helsley trade, but he was a closer in the minors and displayed closer-worthy skills in his first full season with them. With teammate Riley O'Brien behind this spring due to an injury, there's a chance Svanson moves into a more prominent role.
The Final Roster
C - Miguel Amaya, Victor Caratini
1B/3B/CR - Andrew Vaughn, Jordan Lawlar, Josh Jung
OF - Cedric Mullins, Victor Scott II, Chase DeLauter, Dominic Canzone, Matt Wallner
UT - Marcell Ozuna
SP - Tyler Mahle, Reynaldo Lopez, Cade Cavalli, Cristian Javier, Jose Soriano, Jacob Lopez, Chad Patrick/Justin Steele
RP - Clayton Beeter, Matt Svanson
Would this fake team -- well, they're all fake teams, but a construct of a construct -- be competitive? Most certainly it would not. Perhaps if we had an answer key of the best options after pick No. 300 we might be able to assemble a competitive, if not winning team. But this exercise at least demonstrated to me that I want to have my catchers, third basemen and closers addressed well before the endgame, and that there are values to be had at second base, outfield and the starting pitcher spots.
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