We have a modest five-game slate on tap Saturday night, one that features a refreshingly light injury report. Appealing value plays are therefore a bit more at a premium than usual, but there are still plenty of ways to go to differentiate in tournaments.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, Feb. 21 at 1:00 p.m. EST:
Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5) at New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 233.5)
Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat (-11.5) (O/U: 236.5)
Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs (-18.5) (O/U: 230.5)
Detroit Pistons (-10.5) at Chicago Bulls (O/U: 234.5)
Houston Rockets at New York Knicks (-3.5) (O/U: 219.5)
The betting metrics aren't the most appealing on the surface, considering the trio of double-digit favorites and the fact three of the four projected totals of 230+ points are attached to those games. However, the Sixers-Pelicans clash does look to hold plenty of potential, and the Grizzlies-Heat battle has some potential to exceed expectations in terms of how competitive it ultimately is.
Injury Situations to Monitor
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
Joel Embiid, PHI (lower leg): OUT
In Embiid's ongoing absence, Andre Drummond and Adem Bona should handle the majority of minutes at center, while the rest of the starting five will see enhanced usage.
Trey Murphy, NOP (shoulder): OUT
In Murphy's ongoing absence, Bryce McGowens and Jeremiah Fears should see a bulk of shooting guard minutes, and Zion Williamson and Saddiq Bey will be in position to benefit from usage bumps.
Other notable injuries:
Isaiah Stewart, DET (suspension): OUT
Santi Aldama, MEM (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Ty Jerome, MEM (calf): PROBABLE
Elite Players
We have three players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate: Victor Wembanyama ($11,500), Cade Cunningham ($11,000) and Tyrese Maxey ($10,500).
Wembanyama has eclipsed 50 FD points in four of the last five games, including three straight, but there's plenty of risk of limited minutes for him Saturday against the Kings due to the high likelihood of the game getting away from Sacramento.
Cunningham exploded for 75.1 FD points in his most recent game against the Knicks on Thursday, his third straight contest with more than 54 FD points.
Maxey will take the floor without Joel Embiid and has exceeded 40 FD points in three of the past five games coming into what could be the best DFS environment of the night.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Alperen Sengun, HOU ($9,600)
Sengun is averaging 45.1 FD points per contest on the season and should be particularly popular considering the light player pool at center.
Jalen Brunson, NYK ($9,000)
Brunson has 60 and 52.2 FD points in two of his last three games, which should help lock in a high roster rate at his salary.
Kevin Durant, HOU ($8,700)
Durant put up 61.6 FD points in the first game out of the All-Star break Thursday against the Hornets and is still averaging 41.2 FD points per game for the season.
Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK ($8,600)
KAT should be even more popular than usual due to the modest player pool at center and comes into Saturday with a four-game double-double streak.
Zion Williamson, NOP ($7,900)
Williamson will take the floor without Trey Murphy once again Saturday, a scenario in which he posted 37.4 FD points Friday.
Key Values
Paul Reed, DET at CHI ($6,000)
Jalen Duren will return from his suspension Saturday, but Reed remains an intriguing value play based on his recent body of work and the fact that Isaiah Stewart still remains out for Detroit. Reed has scored 25.1 to 51.5 FD points in the last four games, with only two of those starts. The Bulls make for a good potential facilitator of continue strong production, considering Chicago has allowed the third-most FD points to centers in the last seven games (61.5), along with the third-most rebounds overall in the last three contests (58.7). The Bulls are also conceding the fourth-most points in the paint per contest (53.8), while Reed is recording 71.3 percent of his points in that part of the floor.
Kel'el Ware, MIA vs. MEM ($5,700)
Ware provided excellent production off the bench for the Heat against the Hawks on Friday, recording a 14-point, 12-rebound double-double in just 18 minutes on his way to 29.9 FD points. That followed a showing of 39.4 FD points against the Pelicans in the last game before the ASB, and Ware should be in position for another higher-percentile performance Saturday. The Grizzlies continue to deal with plenty of injuries across their roster, and Memphis is conceding the sixth-most FD points per game to centers (58.9) in the last seven games along with the 11th-highest offensive efficiency rating to frontcourt players (84.1) for the season.
Andre Drummond, PHI at NOP ($5,600)
As noted earlier, Drummond will draw the start Saturday with Joel Embiid logging another absence, setting up to the opportunity for the former to overdeliver on his modest salary. Drummond has posted 29.9, 31.9 and 37.3 FD points in his last three turns with the first unit, posting a pair of double-doubles in that span. The big man is averaging 27.3 FD points overall in his 20 starts on the campaign, despite a pair of outlier single-digit FD-point tallies in that span. The Pelicans continue to be an excellent team to target with centers as well, as New Orleans is allowing the fifth-most FD points per game to fives in the last 30 contests (56.1), as well as the fourth-most rebounds (55.8) and the second-most points in the paint per home contest (54.6).
ALSO CONSIDER: Mitchell Robinson, NYK vs. HOU ($4,500)
