Today's college hoops slate is a doozy, one that presents a reasonable case for the best slate of the year. We've got a potential Final Four preview on tap, as well as several other critical matchups with March Madness seeding ramifications likely at stake. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Saturday.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Arizona 
at Houston 
Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson has built Houston into a defensive juggernaut over the years, and, while this year's squad isn't any different in that regard, it's the offense that makes this year's team a threat to win it all.
As a matter of fact, the Cougars' offense leads the Big 12 in efficiency since the conference season started. It's tough to score on Arizona, but Houston has all the tools to get it done. The Cougars' offense leads the league in turnover percentage, ranks third in offensive rebounding percentage, and has made 54 percent of two-point attempts against Big 12 opponents, the third-highest mark in the conference. They've also made 78 percent of their foul shots during league play, the second-highest mark.
It's hard to find many, if any, holes in Arizona's game, but offensively, there is one area that is noticeably weaker. Namely, the Wildcats aren't as great at scoring from the perimeter as one might think. During the conference season, Arizona has made just 33 percent of three-point attempts, 11th in the Big 12. Three-pointers account for just 18 percent of their total points in this span, the lowest in the Big 12. This fact or potential limitation seldom matters for the Wildcats, but it might on Saturday. Houston is holding opponents to 46 percent on two-point attempts, the 15th-best nationally.
The spread is larger than I'd like, but I still like Houston's odds of taking care of business. I'm going with the Cougars.
College Basketball Best Bet: Houston -4.5
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Texas 
at Georgia
The Longhorns' offense continues to sharpen as the season rolls along, recently ascending to sixth on KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings.
The key to their success has been their aggressive play in the paint. They boast the highest free-throw attempt rate nationally while also ranking 15th in offensive rebounding percentage. The latter will inevitably come into play on Saturday, as Georgia is arguably the worst major conference team on the defensive glass. The Bulldogs rank 343rd in defensive rebounding percentage, including a league-worst mark during the SEC conference season.
When playing in the other direction, Georgia appears solid offensively, although a closer look reveals it's not as great as it seems. Since the conference season started, the Bulldogs' offense ranks 10th or worse among SEC teams in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and free-throw attempt rate.
Georgia has also been unable to consistently score from the perimeter, making just 32 percent of shots from behind the arc (264th). This isn't always a fatal flaw, but it doesn't bode well heading into Saturday as Texas is limiting opponents to 48 percent on two-point attempts (56th).
The bottom line is that Texas has better efficiency ratings than Georgia at both ends of the court during the conference season, and on top of that, the Longhorns' elite offense has a massive edge on the glass.
For these reasons, I'm taking the Longhorns.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas +2.5
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Connecticut 
at Villanova 
This pick is all about style, and how these teams match up against each other.
Most college hoops fans are well aware that UConn is outstanding on defense, except there's more to the story. The Huskies are limiting opponents to 30 percent from three-point range, which is nice, but arguably the more impressive part is that they do an outstanding job of preventing opponents from taking them. For context, UConn's opponents attempt three-pointers at the 56th-lowest rate, and three-point field goals account for just 27 percent of points against UConn, among the 40 lowest nationally.
This is a critical note for this matchup because Villanova tends to live and die by the three-point shot. The Wildcats hoist them up at the 48th-highest rate, and they account for 38 percent of their total points, the 33rd-highest mark.
The Wildcats are likely in trouble if they can't hit their perimeter shots on Saturday. The Huskies are holding opponents to 46 percent on two-point attempts, the 13th-best mark nationally, including a league-best mark at 47 percent against Big East teams. The last time these teams faced off, UConn held Villanova to 10-of-33 on shots inside the arc (30 percent) in a 75-67 victory in late January.
At the other end of the court, UConn has established itself as the best offensive team in the Big East. During the conference season, the Huskies lead the league in efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, and three-point field-goal percentage (38 percent). They're also among the top three teams in offensive rebounding and two-point field goal percentage, two areas that should come into play because Villanova's defense ranks third-worst in the league in defensive rebounding and two-point field goal percentage allowed (53 percent).
It's more than possible that Villanova shoots its way to victory, but my money's on the superior team asserting itself and taking over the game in the second half. I'm on the Huskies in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -2.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Houston -4.5
- Texas +2.5
- UConn -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
