If you're drafting best-ball teams or considering dynasty transactions, it's wise to first take a close look at the pre-offseason landscape, including potential 2026 NFL cap casualties. We hear a lot about the top impending free agents, but there are also players currently under contract who may later end up on the open market.
NFL cap casualties may occasionally come as a surprise, but it's easy enough to identify the highest-risk players with the help of resources like spotrac and overthecap. If you look back to last year's edition of this article, you'll see that most of the players listed were either cut, traded or forced to accept pay cuts before Week 1
Because this is a fantasy site, we'll focus on QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs, with analysis of potential fantasy implications. For each player listed, we'll show the potential 2026 cap savings in parentheses. There are some cases where the timing of the release impacts the savings, which is why you'll see 'up to' in front of the $ amount for many players.
Quarterbacks
QB Kirk Cousins (up to $2.1 million in 2026 cap space added)
Probability of release/paycut: 99%
ESPN's Adam Schefter already reported that the Falcons plan to release Cousins soon. Cousins played poorly during his two years in Atlanta, but rumors of a return to Minnesota kind of make sense. I think the Vikings would be better off pursuing Mac Jones, but they may not agree / be willing to pay the trade price. TBD if Cousins gets another shot as a bridge starter or ends up settling for backup work (or retirement).
QB Geno Smith ($8 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 25%
Smith has an $18.5 million guarantee for his $26.5 million base salary in the second season of a three-year contract (one he was never likely to see the end of). The Raiders are expected to draft Fernando Mendoza, but they could still decide that Smith is more valuable than the $8 million as a mentor/backup. Or, they could try to trade Smith for a Day 3 pick and bring in a cheaper backup. I'm guessing he'll be traded or kept, not released, but everything is on the table right now. Mendoza is considered relatively pro-ready after three seasons as a starter in college.
QB Justin Fields (up to $10 million) - 60% chance of release/paycut 
QB Jacoby Brissett ($7.4 million) - 30% 
QB Jameis Winston ($2.7 million) - 50% 
QB Mason Rudolph ($3 million) - 25% 
QB Jarrett Stidham ($4.5 million) - 30% 
QB Andy Dalton ($2 million) - 30%
Running Backs
RB Josh Jacobs (up to $11.4 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 20%
It's a harsh world where this could even be considered, given what Jacobs gave Green Bay the past two years. Unfortunately, his injury-riddled 2025 wasn't nearly as strong as his 2024 campaign, and he doesn't have any guaranteed money for the final two seasons of his four-year, $48 contract. Jacobs is scheduled for base salaries of $10.2 million (2026) and $12.2 million (2027), with around $1.3 million in roster/workout bonuses each year. That's certainly not an overpay relative to his past production, but the Packers may harbor doubts about the 28-year-old's chances of remaining productive. They moved on from Aaron Jones a few years ago when his salary was much lower than Jacobs' current number.
RB D'Andre Swift (up to $7.5 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 20%
Swift is coming off a strong season, but not a dominant one, and he's now scheduled for $7.5 million in non-guaranteed compensation in 2026, the final year of his contract. There's some chance the Bears seek out a different backfield partner for Kyle Monangai, and perhaps also some chance that Monangai takes over as the starter. But if I had to guess, the Bears will run it back with their Swift-Monangai duo, and maybe add a third guy from the free-agency bargain bin or Day 3 of the NFL Draft. Monangai is an interesting early-offseason target in case things don't play out the way I exepct.
RB Tony Pollard ($7.2 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 20%
This is another one where the veteran RB has arguably outplayed his contract and should probably be kept around, but there's enough cap benefit to a release that it wouldn't be entirely shocking if it were to happen. The Pollard-Spears backfield combo is relatively affordable, and one of the few decent things the Titans have going for them. On the other hand, Pollard turns 29 this offseason and might be sick of rebuilding projections even if the pay is decent. A trade would also make sense, with Pollard arguably worth more than his scheduled salary.
RB Aaron Jones (up to $7.7 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 50%
Jones has a $2 million guarantee for his $9 million base salary in 2026. He wasn't bad in 2025 when he was healthy, but he missed five games and then 31 in December. It probably makes sense for everyone if Jones leaves the Vikings for a committee role on a team with a stable QB situation and better playoff odds. Meanwhile, Jordan Mason is under contract for 2026 with a reasonable $5.8 million cap hit, though his passing-game limitations mean the Vikings may want to keep/replace Jones rather than giving more of his workload to Mason.
- RB James Conner ($7.6 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 50%
Conner's status as a team leader and top locker-room guy helps him some, but maybe not as much with a new regime coming in. He'll be 31 in May and is rehabbing from surgery after a severe foot/ankle injury. On the other hand, Conner was a huge bargain before the injury, out-producing his modest compensation year after year. Arizona would clear around $7.6 million in cap space by releasing Conner, who has one year remaining on his contract. An extension or pay cut could also be in play here.
Trey Benson, meanwhile, is entering the third year of his rookie contract. Arizona's lead back in 2026 could be Conner or Benson, sure, but it also might be a rookie or free agent.
RB Alvin Kamara (up to $8.5 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 50%
It's always seemed like Kamara and the Saints don't want to separate, but this could be the moment where it finally makes sense. Or not. You have to figure he can stick around as a passing-down back for another year or two even if it turns out he's washed up otherwise. The problem is that he's being paid for a lot more than a specialist role.
RB Joe Mixon ($8 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 99%
The Texans can add $8 million in cap space by cutting Mixon. A steep pay cut represents his only shot to stay in Houston, where Nick Chubb failed to impress on a one-year contract. Woody Marks and Jawhar Jordan nonetheless figure to face competition of some sort come spring/summer.
RB David Montgomery (up to $6 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 20%
Montgomery is still good enough to warrant his $5.5 million base salary and $500,000 in roster bonuses, but there's some chance the Lions feel otherwise, given their suboptimal cap situation with five players scheduled for 2026 charges above $20 million. At least one of those (Jared Goff's $69.6 million figure) will be brought down drastically by a restructure. The Lions definitely can keep Montgomery... if it's what they prioritize.
RB Justice Hill ($3.1 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 60%
Hill has one year remaining on his contract, with Baltimore able to clear around $3.1 million in cap space if he's traded/released. Hill's season-ending foot injury helped open the door for Keaton Mitchell to finish the season strong, though the Ravens don't trust Mitchell on passing downs the way they trust Hill.
- RB Devin Singletary ($5.3 million) - 95%
RB Antonio Gibson ($3.1 million) - 90% - RB Kendre Miller ($1.5 million) - 50%
- RB Jordan Mason ($3 million) - 20%
Wide Receivers
- WR Stefon Diggs (up to $20.8 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 35%
Diggs has two seasons left on a three-year, $63.5 million contract, but with only $1.7 million in guarantees remaining, i.e., the deal was essentially for one season, with back-to-back team options thereafter. Diggs finished the regular season with 1,013 yards and an 83.3 percent catch rate — highlighted by huge primetime performances in close wins over Buffalo and Baltimore — but he then managed just 14-110-1 on 20 targets in four playoff games. Diggs is mostly a possession receiver at this point, and he'll turn 33 during the 2026 season. My guess is that the Patriots keep him, but a trade or release wouldn't be surprising, especially when you add in the personality/character concerns that seem to follow Diggs wherever he goes (still trying to figure out what the commonality is there?).
WR Probability of release/paycut: 99%
Both Aiyuk and the 49ers made it clear that he won't play for the team again. He should be a free agent soon enough.
WR Tyreek Hill (up to $35.2 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 60%
Hill's massive contract has void years and restructures that ensure a big dead-cap hit whenever he leaves Miami... which could nonetheless be within the next few weeks. Even with the dead money, Miami will add $22.9 million in cap space if Hill is released/traded before June 1 (the number goes up to $35.2 million after June 1).
- WR Calvin Ridley (up to $18.4 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 99%
Ridley has two years and $44 million remaining on his disastrous contract, but only $3 million is guaranteed. He turned 31 in April and has no chance of staying in Tennessee under the current deal. Ridley would probably also have to accept a pay cut in order to facilitate a trade, considering he's well past his prime and coming off a lost season.
- WR Darnell Mooney (up to $11.9 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 60%
Mooney is coming off a down season and now due $11.9 million in non-guaranteed compensation for the third and final year of his contract. The Falcons may not cut him immediately, but it's presumably something they're considering, especially if they figure out a plan to bring in a decent running mate for Drake London.
WR Cooper Kupp (up to $13.5 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 60%
Kupp had some big moments for the Super Bowl champs, but his $12.9 million base salary for 2026 looks like at least a slight overpay relative to what he offers at this point in his career. Kupp got $17.5 million guaranteed in the first season of his three-year, $45 million contract, but none of the remaining money is guaranteed, i.e., it was essentially a one-year deal with back-to-back team options. There's some chance both Kupp and Rashid Shaheed (free agent) find new homes this offseason, with Tory Horton (remember him?) and others then getting a chance to step up alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
- WR Xavier Hutchinson ($3.6 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 30%
Hutchinson is a Day 3 pick who got enough playing time to activate an escalator for the final year of his rookie contract. The catch is that his salary (now $3.6 million) isn't guaranteed, arguably making him a candidate for release. Hutchinson fits best as a No. 4/5 receiver, and it's not a terrible salary for a No. 4.
WR Andrei Iosivas ($3.6 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 25%
This is essentially the same deal as Hutchinson, only Iosivas has a bit more production (and playing time). Both have been near the bottom of the league in a lot of per-route statistics. There are better options in the final rounds of best-ball drafts.
WRs Joshua Palmer & Curtis Samuel
Probability of release/paycut: 95%
Palmer's $9.66 million salary for 2026 is half guaranteed, but he's still in danger of being cut after struggling to earn playing time in the first season of a three-year contract. Samuel, meanwhile, has one season remaining on a similarly failed deal.
- WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (up to $2.75 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 75%
NWI is scheduled for a $2.45 million base salary and $340,000 in per-game roster bonuses in 2026, after struggling to crack a weak WR rotation in 2025.
WR Ashton Dulin ($2.9 million) - 75%- WR KhaDarel Hodge ($2.6 million) - 85%
WR Cedric Tillman ($3.6 million) - 60%
Tight Ends
- TE T.J. Hockenson (up to $16 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 60%
Hockenson will turn 29 in July and is only a few years removed from being one of the top tight ends in the league, but his career was derailed by a horrible knee injury and then horrible QB play. Some team will still want to bet on him, just not at the current price. Minnesota's cap situation is tricky, by the way, currently projected at $40 million over the 2026 cap despite not having a well-paid QB. Hockenson is one of nine Vikings currently scheduled for a cap hit above $19 million.
- TE Dalton Schultz ($11 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 30%
Schultz has one year remaining on his contract, with a non-guaranteed $11 million base salary for what will be his age-30 season. He just had a career high for targets (106) as well as his second-most yards (777) in a single season, while teammate Cade Stover had just 76 yards in nine regular-season games. The Texans will probably have to look off-roster to find Schultz's replacement if they decide it's time.
- TE Cole Kmet (up to $10 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 50%
Kmet has two years and $20 million remaining on his contract, but none of it is guaranteed. All outcomes are possible here, including a trade, given that the contract is reasonable for a decent starting TE.
- TE Dawson Knox ($9.7 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 35%
The Bills can free up around $9.7 million in cap space if they release Knox, who will otherwise be in the final season of a three-year, $29.5 million deal. An extension also makes sense here, lowering his 2026 cap hit while keeping him on the team (and well-paid).
TE Colby Parkinson ($7 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 40%
Parkinson went on a TD spree in the second half of the 2025 campaign, but he also had some big drops/mistakes in big moments, and was lucky to get so many scoring opportunities. His three-year, $22.5 million contract looked like a major bust through the first season and a half of the deal.
- TE Evan Engram (up to $6.5 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 55%
Engram has a $5 million guarantee for his $11 million base salary in 2026. He didn't add much in 2025, catching some dump-off passes while offering his usual subpar work as a blocker. Engram will turn 32 in September, and looks like a bust of a signing (two years, $23M) last offseason.
- TE Mike Gesicki (up to $5.4 million)
Probability of release/paycut: 45%
Gesicki is scheduled for a $2 million roster bonus on the fifth day of the league year. After that, he has a $3.1 million base salary for 2026 and a $7.6 million salary for 2027. None of the money is guaranteed, and he'll turn 31 in October. Then again, it's not that much money (for 2026 at least).
- TE Pat Freiermuth (up to $9.1 million) - 25%
- TE Jonnu Smith (up to $7 million) - 75%
TE Noah Gray (up to $5.5 million) - 25% - TE Tommy Tremble ($6 million) - 40%
- TE Brock Wright (up to $3.7 million) - 30%
TE Will Dissly ($4 million) - 60%- TE Charlie Woerner ($4.8 million) - 60%
