SUPER BOWL SUNDAY
Seattle vs. New England (+4.5) at Santa Clara, o/u 45.5
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
Not sure if the media has mentioned this, but Super Bowl LX is a rematch of the classic Super Bowl XLIX, when the Seahawks were denied a repeat by either Malcolm Butler or Pete Carroll's hubris in not just handing the damn ball to Marshawn Lynch, depending on who you talk to. Of course, there's nobody on either roster or coaching staff who's still around from 12 years ago, so that outcome doesn't really mean much Sunday. The Seahawks got here by riding their No. 1 seed in the NFC to home wins over the 49ers and Rams, denying the former a chance to play host to a Super Bowl and the latter a chance to avenge their own loss to the Belichick/Brady-era Pats in Super Bowl LIII. Sam Darnold's nursed an oblique strain during Seattle's playoff run, but it hasn't slowed him. He has a 4:0 TD:INT in two games with a 69.8 percent completion rate and an 8.9 YPA, with two of those scores going to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kenneth Walker's also done a credible impression of a bell cow, right before he reaches free agency, churning out 178 rushing yards and four TDs in the two playoff wins. Mike Macdonald's defense has been the engine of this team, though. The Rams are the only team since Week 10 to even put up more than 300 yards of offense against the Seahawks, and during their active nine-game winning streak — which includes two clashes with Sean McVay's crew — they've allowed an average of 14.7 points and 284.4 yards while racking up 16 takeaways and 18 sacks. This is maybe the last chance at a ring for veterans like DeMarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams, and those two have all three of Seattle's playoff sacks so far. Expect them to add to those numbers against a New England offensive line that's watched Drake Maye get brought down a stunning 15 times in three postseason games. The wild card is the health of rookie Nick Emmanwori, who injured an ankle Wednesday. Seattle's defense revolves around his jack-of-all-trades game, and he's not likely to be 100 percent healthy.
You have to figure the Patriots are doing some other things right to get this far, though. Maye's numbers haven't been great as he's run a gauntlet of the AFC's best defenses, plus bad weather in Denver — 55.8 percent completion rate, 4:2 TD:INT, 6.9 YPA, three fumbles lost — but he's added 141 rushing yards and a TD on the ground. He also dealt with a bit of a sore shoulder coming out of the win over the Broncos, not surprising given the pounding he's been taking, but he's not on the injury report. Rhamondre Stevenson's been able to keep the chains moving with 280 scrimmage yards in three playoff games, though he's still looking for his first TD of the postseason. Like their opponents Sunday, New England's defense has been carrying the team. Over the team's last six games, all wins, the Pats have allowed an average of 11.7 points and 241.0 yards a game while erupting for 13 takeaways and 18 sacks. They haven't exactly faced the stiffest competition during that time, however. The list of QBs they've taken down during the winning streak includes Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers and Jarrett Stidham, while Lamar Jackson only played half a game against them and Justin Herbert was dealing with a Swiss cheese offensive line. Mike Vrabel's crew did bamboozle C.J. Stroud, and Darnold's been prone to seeing ghosts now and then. If the Patriots are going to come away with the win, Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and company are likely going to need to spook the Seattle quarterback just as badly.
Key Info
SEA injury report: QB Sam Darnold (questionable, oblique), RB Zach Charbonnet (IR, knee), WR Tory Horton (IR, shin), LT Charles Cross (questionable, foot), CB Nick Emmanwori (questionable, ankle)
NE injury report: EDGE Harold Landry (questionable, knee), LB Robert Spillane (questionable, ankle)
Strong lean: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: TE Hunter Henry (SEA 28th in receptions per game allowed to TEs)
Slight fade: WR Cooper Kupp (NE second in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Strong fade: QB Drake Maye (SEA first in passing DVOA, t-seventh in passing TDs allowed, fourth in QB rating against)
Strong fade: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (SEA first in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards allowed to RBs, t-first in rushing TDs allowed to RBs, sixth in passing DVOA vs. RBs)
Strong fade: WR Stefon Diggs (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR1)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 25-35 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Walker thunders for 100 yards and a touchdown. Darnold throws for 200 yards and a TD to JSN, but also throws a pick-six to Gonzalez. Stevenson puts together 80 combined yards. Maye throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked four times, but he does toss one score to Henry while running in another. A Jason Myers field goal from 44 yards out in the final minute proves to be the difference. Seahawks 23-21
Last week's record: 1-1, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 o/u
2025 postseason record: 9-3, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 o/u
2025 regular-season record: 173-98-1 (.638), 143-121-8 ATS (.542), 141-130-1 o/u (.520)
