NHL PrizePicks Today: Top NHL Player Props & Picks for March 14 – Best Plays
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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.
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Card Overview: Another 4-2 night on Thursday. One of the two losses was by a second, the other was due to OT.
This card lists a lot of the same players as Thursday, though the lines and/or situations aren't quite as favorable. There is some opportunity here, but I wouldn't go overboard.
BUILDING BLOCKS
Morgan Rielly 20.75 at Buffalo Sabres- 7:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
Rielly has gone under during his last three games and has been on the ice for less than 20 minutes in from the last two, which coincides with his move from PP1 to PP2. Toronto offers as much balance among its three defensive pairings as any team, so the only way for any of their defensemen to get over 20 minutes is on special-teams. Considering Rielly doesn't participate on either penalty kill, his path to getting over 20.75 is very limited.
Thomas Chabot 24.5 vs. Anaheim Ducks - 1:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Chabot has been an auto-over since Jake Sanderson left the lineup three games ago, yet his line has crept up to a spot where we might need some things to go our way. The Senators played from ahead on Tuesday in Vancouver where Chabot finished with 24.49 minutes. And his line was at 24, so he hit - but you can see the potential issue. A lead script could be problematic. Nick Jensen is also questionable for Saturday. If he's out, I'm not sure how Chabot would go under 24.5. So if Jensen can't go, Chabot is an auto-play. And if Jensen is available, Chabot is still a decent play in a tight matchup.
Cale Makar 24.5 at Winnipeg Jets - 4:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
Makar hit the under with ease on Thursday, though that was due to the blowout nature of that game. He was actually near a pace to hit the over after two periods, but that's only because the Kraken couldn't stay out of the penalty box. One thing that's frustrating when going less on Makar is that he's on the PP1 and PK1. So if the refs are whistle-happy, then it's a tough road. With that said, the Avs went with 7D on Thursday. So if they do that again, we'll just need a lot of even-strength minutes or a positive script to hit this pick.
SCRIPT/LINE/INJURY DEPENDENT
Rasmus Dahlin 24 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
A couple things are in play here. First, Dahlin has been a solid under play the past couple weeks, but the line has adjusted and now it's at a point where I wouldn't take him for less until his line moved back near 25. The key to the over here is the possible absence of linemate Mattias Samuelsson as he averages nearly 24 minutes where the replacement would only top out around 16 and leave a large chunk of the remainder to Dahlin. With that said, he could still go under if the Sabres get out to a big lead, though all we need is for the matchup to stay close for a period or two and Dahlin should go over 24 minutes...if Samuelsson is out.
Quinn Hughes 26.75 vs. New York Rangers - 6:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
As mentioned earlier, I missed out on the under on Hughes Thursday as it went to overtime. After the game, the Wild's coach expressed his disappointment in his team's readiness to face a team they should beat. It's been a bit of a problem for Minnesota this season, but something tells me they'll get the message after the loss on Thursday. Once again, the key for this play is an early lead. A trail script will be tough to overcome, yet an early lead should result in a relatively easy win. The Wild come in as heavy favorites off a defeat, so I'd expect a solid start.
Mikhail Sergachev 24.5 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins - 9:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
I've been waiting for Sergachev to return since I was expecting his ice time to drop with the addition of MacKenzie Weegar. If you looked at the box score from Thursday, it seemed that didn't happen - though a closer look revealed Sergachev played a lot in OT. That and a neutral/trail script forced him into some more minutes, but I don't expect the same thing to happen Saturday as Utah's favored, at home, and coming off a bad loss. I'm expecting the Mammoth to come out with some fire and play from ahead in this spot. And if that happens, Sergachev won't hit 24 minutes.
