Women's Olympic Best Bets & Picks: Italy vs Sweden, Finland vs USA – Expert Game Previews
The 2026 Winter Olympics from Milano Cortina, Italy are well underway, and the women's tournament is in full stride. Be sure to check out our best bets for Women's Olympic Hockey article for a full overview.
The host nation, Italy, takes the ice as a decisive underdog against Sweden early Saturday morning, while Team USA is back in action against a decent Finland team.
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Italy vs Sweden Match Preview: Women's Olympic Hockey Best Bets
The host nation got off to a quick start Thursday at the Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena, pounding France 4-1 for its first-ever Olympic win.
Italy rattled off 46 shots on goal (SOG), to just 15 for France, as it sent the home fans away in a tremendous mood, thinking big after the rather easy victory for the IIHF's 17th-ranked team. France entered ranked 14th.
The Italians fell behind 1-0 on a power-play goal for France, but captain Nadia Mattivi leveled the game at 1-1 before Rebecca Roccella was credited with the game-winning goal late in the second period. Meanwhile, Kristin Della Rovere had two points for the host nation. Italy set the tone early, outshooting France 22-4 in the first period, testing France's Alice Philbert, who did her best to keep the French in it.
Italy has some talent as well, as Mattivi was a captain at Boston University, and Laura Fontino, who has dual citizenship, won a gold medal with Canada.
For Sweden, Ebba Svensson Traff starred in net, as the team opened with a 4-1 win over Germany. Like Italy, Sweden fell behind 1-0, but Lina Ljungblom cleaned up a rebound to level it at 1-1. She was back in a repeat midway through the second, as Mira Jungaker got on the board with a snap shot, while Hilda Svensson powered one past the German goalie to put a bow on the scoring.
Italy had a feel-good moment in the opener, but Sweden is a more battle-tested team. We might see Italy get a bump from the home crowd early on, but eventually talent will take over, and Sweden is just a little too deep.
Back Sweden to get it done by at least three goals, but let's go Under at plus-money, based on the fact both teams cashed low in the opening games. Italy will likely have trouble duplicating its offensive effort from the opener.
- Sweden (W) -2.5 Goals (+102 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Under 5.5 (+112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Don't make any bets on your favorite sports betting apps without first consulting the latest NHL odds.
Team USA vs Finland Game Analysis: Olympic Women's Tournament Predictions
Team USA polished Czechia 5-1 in Thursday's opener, as the United States improved to 8-0 in Olympic openers, outscoring opponents 49-6 in opening games. Team USA also outshot Czechia 42-14, as Aerin Frankel was tasked with making 13 saves.
Joy Dunne opened the scoring for Team USA, her first as an Olympian, while Hayley Scamurra notched a pair of goals despite some limited ice time, and Hilary Knight had a beautiful power move for the fourth goal, as the captain was assisted by Alex Carpenter and Hannah Bilka. The goal was the 13th of Knight's Olympic career, and she is now just one short of tying the all-time record for career goals. Katie King-Crowley and Natalie Darwitz each sit atop the list, for now, with 14 Olympic goals.
For Finland, a stomach virus caused a postponement of its game against Canada on Thursday, as the majority of the roster was sick, and the team was unable to compete. If Finland is well enough to go Saturday, who knows what the team's stamina and effectiveness will be. It's a great spot for Team USA to start strong, and finish stronger. Given Finland's recent illnesses, Team USA is in a great position to win this one going away.
Let's lay the 5.5 goals with Team USA, and going Over 6.5 goals is also a good bet. We need Team USA to get to at least six goals to cover, so if you like the United States to cover the puck line, you should also like the Over.
- Team USA -5.5 Goals (-102 at BetMGM)
- Over 6.5 (-108 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Top Picks and Value Bets for February 7 Women's Olympic Games
3-Leg NHL Super Parlay (+853 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Sweden (W) -2.5 Goals vs. Italy (W) (+102)
- Under 5.5 (+112) - Italy (W) vs. Sweden (W)
- United States (W) -5.5 Goals vs. Finland (W) (-108)
2-Leg NHL Sides Parlay (+289 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Sweden (W) -2.5 Goals vs. Italy (W) (+102)
- United States (W) -5.5 Goals vs. Finland (W) (-108)
2-Leg NHL Totals Parlay (+308 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Under 5.5 (+112) - Italy (W) vs. Sweden (W)
- Over 6.5 (-108) - Finland (W) vs. United States (W)
