The season for NASCAR betting gets underway with the biggest way with Sunday's Daytona 500, the most prestigious Cup Series race, at Daytona International Speedway.
But first, the unique format for setting the grid in the Daytona 500. Kyle Busch earned the pole in Wednesday's single-car qualifying and Chase Briscoe earned the second spot for Sunday. But tonight's two 150-mile qualifying races set the rest of the field for the 500-mile main event.
How much will a good run tonight translate to Sunday? RotoWire.com found out by looking back at the past decade of Duel races.
How Duel Race Winners Fared In Daytona 500 Since 2016
Year | Duel 1 winner, Daytona 500 Finish | Duel 2 winner, Daytona 500 Finish |
2025 | Bubba Wallace, 29th | Austin Cindric, eighth |
2024 | Tyler Reddick, 29th | Christopher Bell, third |
2023 | Joey Logano, second | Aric Almirola, 21st |
2022 | Brad Keselowski, ninth | Chris Buescher, 16th |
2021 | Aric Almirola, 34th | Austin Dillon, third |
2020 | Joey Logano, 26th | William Byron, 40th |
2019 | Kevin Harvick, 26th | Joey Logano, fourth |
2018 | Ryan Blaney, seventh | Chase Elliott, 33rd |
2017 | Chase Elliott, 14th | Denny Hamlin, 17th |
2016 | Dale Earnhardt Jr., 36th | Kyle Busch, third |
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The two 150-mile Duel races are set for tonight (7 p.m., FS1) on the 2.5-mile DIS superspeedway oval. The field of 45 cars trying to get into the 500 will be divided into two Duels depending on their single-car qualifying time.
Over the past 10 years, nobody has won a Duel race and gone on to capture the Daytona 500. The driver who came closest was Joey Logano, who won Duel No. 1 in 2023 and went on to finish second in the main event. At Caesars Sportsbook, Logano has +1400 Daytona 500 odds as he tries to capture the Harley J. Earl Trophy for the second time (he won the 500 in 2015).
But of the 20 Duel winners in the past 10 years, eight have finished 25th or worse in the 500. Daytona's pack racing, often with dozens of cars dicing within inches of each other at about 200 mph, is largely responsible for crashes that take contenders out of the running.
How Daytona 500 Winners Finished In Duel Races
Year, Winning Daytona 500 Driver | Duel Race Finish | Daytona 500 Grid Position |
2025, William Byron | Second, Duel No. 1 | fifth |
2024, William Byron | Eighth, Duel No. 2 | 18th |
2023, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 16th, Duel No. 1 | 31st |
2022, Austin Cindric | Second, Duel No. 1 | fifth |
2021, Michael McDowell | Ninth, Duel No. 1 | 17th |
2020, Denny Hamlin | 11th, Duel No. 1 | 21st |
2019, Denny Hamlin | Fourth, Duel No. 2 | 10th |
2018, Austin Dillon | Sixth, Duel No. 2 | 14th |
2017, Kurt Busch | Third, Duel No. 2 | eighth |
2016, Denny Hamlin | Fifth, Duel No. 1 | 11th |
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As we established, a good finish in the Duels doesn't necessarily indicate that a car will finish well in the Daytona 500. The inverse is also true: A poor finish in the Duels, which leads to a start deep in the pack for Sunday's 500-miler, does not end any driver's hopes to win the "Great American Race" either.
Seven times in the past 10 years, a driver starting 10th or worse emerged as the Daytona 500 winner. The most extreme example in the past decade was Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who finished 16th in his Duel race and started 31st in the Daytona 500. Stenhouse only led 10 laps in the 500, but they were the final 10 laps.
At BetMGM Sportsbook, Team Penske teammates Logano and Ryan Blaney are +1200 co-favorites in Daytona 500 odds. Top qualifier Kyle Busch is at +1600, tied for fifth on the operator's board. The Daytona 500 pole-sitter has won the race nine times since 1959, but not since Dale Jarrett in 2001.
