Saturday brings us a loaded college hoops slate, perhaps the best of the conference season thus far, as several conference-champion contenders face off. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on a high-octane college hoops Saturday.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Mississippi 
at Texas 
The Longhorns are proving to be one of the best offensive teams in the nation, and Saturday's matchup does them multiple favors.
Mississippi has struggled to slow down SEC opponents, ranking third-worst in defensive efficiency during the conference season. The Rebels have been particularly poor in the paint, ranking last in the league in free-throw attempt rate allowed and recording the second-worst defensive rebounding percentage. Ole Miss is also allowing conference opponents to make 54 percent of two-point attempts, the sixth-worst in the SEC.
These are ideal flaws for a potent offense like the Longhorns' to exploit. The Texas offense ranks among the top 20 teams nationally in adjusted efficiency, offensive rebounding percentage, and free-throw attempt rate, the latter being the third-highest among all D-1 teams. Texas has made 78 percent of foul shots during league play, the highest mark in the conference, so it's a good bet that the Longhorns will likely score a significant portion of their points from the charity stripe on Saturday.
At the other end of the court, the Rebels' scoring issues rival their defensive issues. Against SEC opponents, Ole Miss' offense ranks among the three worst teams in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding percentage, and two-point field goal percentage, making a league-worst 47 percent during the conference season. Perhaps the important note is that the Rebels rarely get to the foul line, ranking last in the league in free-throw attempt rate. Defensively, fouling has been an issue for Texas, so this is the ideal opponent at the other end of the court as well.
All things considered, the Longhorns couldn't ask for a better conference opponent to match up against. I'm laying the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas -9
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Duke 
at North Carolina
On paper, it's hard to ever fade Duke, given its elite standings in many important categories, although North Carolina has proven to have a high ceiling as well.
During the ACC conference season, North Carolina's offense has matched Duke's level and arguably performed better overall. The Blue Devils lead the league in offensive efficiency at 121.6, although the Tar Heels are right on their heels at 121.4, essentially the same rating. In the same span, North Carolina's offense leads the ACC in effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage, and ranks second in two-point FG percentage (58 percent). Duke's defense, meanwhile, is second in the ACC in efficiency, although it's allowing conference opponents to make 50 percent of shots in the paint, and it ranks eighth in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Blue Devils' defense is tough to crack, but it's not perfect.
Defensively, the Tar Heels don't have the best efficiency rating, but they are elite at guarding the paint. North Carolina has held opponents to 44 percent on shots inside the arc, the fifth-best mark allowed nationally. Similarly, the Tar Heels have the seventh-best free-throw attempt rate nationally, underscoring their skillful rim protection.
I wouldn't be surprised if Duke steals this Battle of the Blues in the closing minutes, but I'm betting the home team in this rivalry brings the intensity to match the visitors. I'm taking the points in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Carolina +5.5
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Florida 
at Texas A&M 
As I've noted in a few of my articles with games involving Florida, the Gators only have one real weakness offensively.
Namely, Florida cannot reliably score from the perimeter. The Gators have made under 29 percent of three-point attempts (350th), so they are at an automatic disadvantage against any defense that is elite in the paint. In looking at Saturday's opponent, the Aggies do not fit that description at all. In fact, Florida's elite frontcourt is poised to play up to its usual standards based on the matchup.
Texas A&M's defense ranks 172nd in defensive rebounding percentage and is allowing opponents to score 51 percent of their attempts inside the arc (169th), hardly the marks of a strong interior defense. This is exactly what Florida likes to see on the scouting report, as the Gators have the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage nationally, and they have made 58 percent of two-point attempts, the 20th-highest mark.
The defending champs are just as elite at the other end of the court, if not better. In addition to leading the SEC in offensive efficiency during the conference season, Florida also leads the league in defensive efficiency, as well as effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage allowed, holding conference opponents to under 47 percent.
Given Texas A&M's mediocre interior defense, I'm betting Florida will pull away in the second half. The Aggies have relied on three-pointers to win most of their games, often to great success, although teams can often get buried early if the long-range shots aren't falling. Maybe the home team gets hot shooting and pulls off the upset, but my money's on the superior team building a lead and covering. I'm going with the Gators.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida -6
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Texas -9
- North Carolina +5.5
- Florida -6
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